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Some good news and bad news for 09

Posted by rightwinger on January 4, 2009

The good news first.  I was very happy to read that Investor’s Business Daily thinks the US will pull out of this recession by the end of 2009.   The down side?  Inflation will be looming at the end of 2009 because of all the mass spending and bailouts.

Contrary to predictions of gloom and doom lasting into 2010, the U.S. economy will pull out of its recession as a massive home inventory overhang is worked off, oil prices stay low, trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailout funds are put to work and Fed interest-rate cuts kick in. Banks and finance companies will start lending again, and rising demand will push companies to hire. By the end of 2009, some people will be voicing concern about a new threat — inflation.

Cheaper energy helps. The weekly average cost of a gallon of gasoline plunged from $4.05 at its peak in mid-July to $1.59 in the last week of 2008. According to Nariman Behravish, chief economist of Global Insight, each 10-cent drop in gas prices is equal to a $12 billion tax cut. So the U.S. will get a “silent” tax cut of about $295 billion.

This means the bear market in stocks — which are one of the economy’s best leading indicators — should be drawing to a close. This bear is now in its 15th month, and most don’t last more than 15 or 16. Nine to 10 is more like it.

Most economists look for a 1% drop in GDP in 2009 as unemployment heads for 8%. But a strong second-half rebound means the U.S. economy might grow in 2009 — and once again pull the rest of the world out of recession with it.

The bad news is that our homeland will be less secure if Obama does not follow George Bush’s lead.  No matter what you have to say about Bush, he kept us safe.  9/11 was due to lack of initiative and precautions taken by the Clinton administration.  The libs want to blame Bush, but he had barely been in office when 9/11 happened.  The intelligence they had was sketchy.  The one hijacker that had been arrested kept quiet until after the attack.  Obama has not once named our enemy of Islamic terrorism.  Political correctness is not what we need to defeat this enemy.  If we had appeased Hitler, we would all be speaking German about now.

One of the Bush Administration’s key reasons for letting the National Security Agency listen to communications between the U.S. and al-Qaida contacts was that the special courts set up by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act often work too slowly to prevent terrorist operations. As current CIA director and former NSA director Gen. Michael Hayden put it, “it’s a quicker trigger . . . it allows us to be as agile as operationally required to cover these targets.”

Given this success, will Barack Obama as president follow the wishes of many of his fellow Democrats in Congress and dilute this indispensable tool that has helped keep us safe since the 9/11 attacks?

Will he end the CIA’s so-called “black prisons” program, in which tough interrogations were used on key terrorist detainees in foreign locations, to extract information about future attack plans?

Will he take the heat from the left of his own party and boldly use his constitutional authority as president to go the extra mile in protecting the country, as George W. Bush has?

Will he view victory as imperative in both Iraq and Afghanistan, recognizing them as fronts in the war on terror?

We’ll see. Promising to get Osama bin Laden sounds great in a campaign; governing requires more than catchphrases.

Read the full article


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